Cal Poly
Men - Women
2015 - 2016 - 2017
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RankNameGradeRating
40  Peyton Bilo SO 19:44
256  Ashley Windsor SR 20:27
315  Molly Haar SR 20:35
405  Cate Ratliff FR 20:46
447  Katie Izzo SO 20:50
706  Julia Vasquez SO 21:13
796  Morgin Coonfield FR 21:18
970  Hannah Hull SO 21:30
1,090  Kylie Nishisaka JR 21:38
National Rank #42 of 344
West Region Rank #10 of 39
Chance of Advancing to Nationals 6.3%
Most Likely Finish 9th at Regional


National Champion 0.0%
Top 5 at Nationals 0.0%
Top 10 at Nationals 0.0%
Top 20 at Nationals 1.2%


Regional Champion 0.0%
Top 5 in Regional 0.7%
Top 10 in Regional 89.4%
Top 20 in Regional 100.0%


Race Performance Ratings


Times listed are adjusted ratings based on performance compared to other runners in race.


RaceDateTeam Rating Peyton Bilo Ashley Windsor Molly Haar Cate Ratliff Katie Izzo Julia Vasquez Morgin Coonfield Hannah Hull Kylie Nishisaka
UC Riverside Invitational 09/17 908 20:11 20:43 21:08 21:11 21:09 20:39 21:55
Stanford Invitational 10/01 724 19:43 20:33 20:19 21:11 20:54 21:14 20:48 21:16 21:35
ISU adidas Pre Nationals (Blue) 10/15 709 19:19 20:24 20:47 20:52 20:40 20:51 21:22
Big West Championship 10/29 663 19:49 20:20 20:21 20:38 20:43 21:15 22:48 21:57 21:20
West Region Championships 11/11 705 19:28 20:18 20:45 20:23 21:38 21:30





NCAA Tournament Simulation


Based on results of 2,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament. Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.



Team Results

Advances to RoundAve FinishAve Score Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
NCAA Championship 6.3% 24.8 574 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.4 0.7 0.6 0.3 0.5 0.8 0.5 0.6 0.4
Region Championship 100% 9.2 275 0.1 0.6 2.0 6.1 15.2 35.8 29.7 7.6 2.9 0.2



Individual Results

NCAA ChampionshipAdvances to RoundAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Peyton Bilo 76.0% 45.6 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.7 0.5 0.9 0.7 0.8 0.8 1.2 0.8 0.8 1.1 1.1 0.9 1.5 0.7 1.5 0.5 0.8 1.3
Ashley Windsor 6.5% 141.8
Molly Haar 6.3% 165.0
Cate Ratliff 6.3% 192.5
Katie Izzo 6.3% 199.0
Julia Vasquez 6.3% 230.5
Morgin Coonfield 6.3% 236.0


RegionalAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Peyton Bilo 13.8 0.6 1.6 1.6 2.7 3.2 3.8 4.2 4.4 4.4 4.3 5.6 5.3 4.7 4.7 4.5 3.8 4.3 4.2 3.3 3.1 3.1 2.9 3.1 1.8 2.2
Ashley Windsor 52.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.4
Molly Haar 59.9 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2
Cate Ratliff 70.9
Katie Izzo 75.5
Julia Vasquez 99.9
Morgin Coonfield 106.8




NCAA Championship Selection Detail

Total
Region Finish Chance of Finishing Chance of Advancing Auto At Large Selection No Adv Auto At Large Region Finish
1 2 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
1 1
2 2
3 3
4 0.1% 100.0% 0.1 0.1 0.1 4
5 0.6% 75.0% 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.5 5
6 2.0% 61.5% 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.5 0.8 1.2 6
7 6.1% 36.4% 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.7 0.7 0.1 3.9 2.2 7
8 15.2% 14.1% 0.1 0.2 0.4 1.4 0.2 13.1 2.2 8
9 35.8% 0.6% 0.2 35.6 0.2 9
10 29.7% 29.7 10
11 7.6% 7.6 11
12 2.9% 2.9 12
13 0.2% 0.2 13
14 14
15 15
16 16
17 17
18 18
19 19
20 20
21 21
22 22
23 23
24 24
25 25
26 26
27 27
28 28
29 29
30 30
31 31
32 32
33 33
34 34
35 35
36 36
37 37
38 38
39 39
Total 100% 6.3% 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.5 0.9 1.2 2.5 0.5 93.7 0.0 6.3




Points



At large teams are selected based on the number of wins (points) against teams already in the championships. As a result, advancement is predicated on accumulating enough points before the last at-large selection. Accordingly, the points below are the total number of wins against automatic qualifiers or teams selected in the at-large process before the last selection. Minimum, maximum, and average points are number seen in 2,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament.



Received By BeatingChance ReceivedAverage If >0Average
Florida 27.8% 1.0 0.3
Furman 25.1% 1.0 0.3
Virginia 24.8% 1.0 0.2
Missouri 24.4% 1.0 0.2
Eastern Kentucky 12.1% 1.0 0.1
Louisville 9.3% 1.0 0.1
Rice 5.9% 1.0 0.1
Kansas 5.6% 1.0 0.1
Ohio State 3.8% 1.0 0.0
Colorado St. 2.1% 1.0 0.0
Butler 1.7% 1.0 0.0
Oklahoma 1.0% 1.0 0.0
Dartmouth 0.8% 1.0 0.0
Brown 0.6% 1.0 0.0
Indiana 0.2% 1.0 0.0
Elon 0.2% 1.0 0.0
Clemson 0.1% 1.0 0.0
Purdue 0.1% 1.0 0.0
Total 1.5
Minimum 0.0
Maximum 5.0